Timing Will Matter
Don’t expect the same kind of drastic price cuts you saw last December: With the National Retail Federation forecasting that shoppers will spend 3.2 percent less than they did in last year’s dismal season, retailers have purchased less inventory for holiday 2009.
Customers Are Pickier
If you’ve got a slimmed-down shopping list this holiday season, you’re not alone. “The upper hand is with the consumer, there’s no doubt,” said James Russo, vice president of global consumer insights at market research giant Nielsen. “There is a whole adjustment around the holiday mind-set. It’s not always about more.”
Stores Pushing Gift Cards
Here at MoneyWatch, we’re not big fans of gift cards. Drawbacks can include fees and usage restrictions, and some gift givers find them too impersonal. Yet shoppers are buying more of them than ever, said Russo. In Nielsen’s 2009 Holiday Season Forecast, shoppers in 8 percent of U.S. households planned to spend more on gift cards this holiday season — even as overall consumer sales are expected to be down from last year.
Walmart Calls the Shots
Even if you’ve never set foot inside the big-box megaretailer, you should know what Walmart is up to — because this holiday season in particular, Walmart is calling the tune for industrywide sales and promotions. Already the world’s largest retailer, the chain has gained new customers and clout in the current downturn; now it’s using its position to launch price wars that have drawn in a range of other stores.
There’s No iPhone
Last year, it was Nintendo’s Wii. The year before that, it was the iPhone. For the past few shopping seasons, there’s been a clear must-have gift item dominating Santa’s wish lists. Consumer Reports’ Marks points out that some consumers last year actually purchased their Wii systems on eBay — and paid as much as 50 percent more than the list price.
Mark It Down and They Will Come
Not surprisingly, the end-of-year clearance sales started well before the Halloween candy-corn got moved to the sale bins.
Let’s Be Practical
We’re all tough customers this year. A total of 86% of shoppers surveyed say they won’t buy anything without a 20% discount, and a quarter will demand at least half off.
Free Is Good
On the Internet, consumers will be deluged with commercial messages this year, delivered by every trendy new means the marketers can get their hands on. This year, that means they’re sprucing up Facebook pages, firing out Tweets, and preparing commercial blogs and RSS feeds designed to lure customers into their stores, online and brick-and-mortar.
Candy Is Better
When it comes to frills, consumers say they’ll make do with less this year. They’ll use the holiday ornaments they already have in the closet. They plan to spend less than in past years on decorations, flowers, greeting cards, and postage.
Small Is Best
Electronics are on the American shopping list, as always. But this year, people are thinking small. Not necessarily cheap, just small. Not wide-screen televisions or expensive sound systems. Clever little things that go “beep.”
Browse ‘Til You Drop
The big-box discounter is the top destination for holiday shoppers this year, but it’s not the only one. More than half say they’ll also shop at department stores, and four in 10 intend to holiday shop at grocery stores and on the Internet. Could be a big year for Amazon (AMZN).
Where’s the Bright Spot?
Retailers hope and expect that their 2009 holiday season results will be far better than in 2008.But that’s setting the bar pretty low. Overall, 2009 holiday same-store sales are expected to rise about 1%, compared with last year’s decline of 5.8%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Home and Hearth
The year-end holidays traditionally are among the busiest travel seasons of the year.
This year, not so much.
More than one-fourth of Americans surveyed say that concerns over the economy are forcing them to travel less or not at all this season.
What’s In It for Us?
After all we’ve been through in the past year and more, many trend-spotters believe the “back to basics” concept may actually be a reality this time. That offers the prospect of a holiday that’s a bit less stressful and a little more fun for anybody over the age of 12.
